SCMAT Exclusive Wrestling Article 12-31-21

The Santa Rally

What does history say?

If you keep an eye on Wall Street and stock performance, you know Santa Claus is handing out gifts right now. The Santa Claus rally occurs in the U.S. stock market in the final five trading days of a calendar year and the first two trading sessions of the new year.

History says, if Santa Claus doesn't come to Wall Street in December, the Grinch hits the stock market in January.

This year, the Santa Claus rally is off to the best start in 20 years.

The Santa Claus rally trend was first identified by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader's Almanac. Hirsch was known for saying that "if Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall."

Does SC Wrestling have any historical trends that allow us to predict how the #1 teams will fair in the new year?

Let's take a look at the last 10 years of Team Rankings at SCMAT and see what we can analyze ... we will start with November 2012 and go through December 2021.

Here are the the #1 Ranked teams at each stage of the year when SCMAT posted Ranking Releases. The State Champion in February is listed at the end of each season.

Season/Month	2A-1A			3A			4A		5A		
-------------	----------------	------------------	-------------	----------------
2012-13	NOV	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Eastside		Lexington
2012-13	DEC	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Eastside		Lexington
2012-13	JAN	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Eastside		Rock Hill
2012-13	CHAMP	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Eastside		Lexington

2013-14	NOV	Battery Creek		Eastside		Lexington
2013-14	DEC	Battery Creek		Eastside		Rock Hill
2013-14	JAN	Liberty			Eastside		Rock Hill
2013-14	CHAMP	Battery Creek		Eastside		Rock Hill

2014-15	NOV	Battery Creek		Eastside		Dorman
2014-15	DEC	Liberty			West-Oak		Rock Hill
2014-15	JAN	Crescent		South Pointe		Dorman
2014-15	CHAMP	Battery Creek		West-Oak		Rock Hill

2015-16	NOV	Battery Creek		West-Oak		Dorman
2015-16	DEC	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	West-Oak		Rock Hill
2015-16	JAN	Battery Creek		West-Oak		Boiling Springs
2015-16	CHAMP	Marion			Eastside		Dorman

2016-17	NOV	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Battery Creek		Eastside	Rock Hill
2016-17	DEC	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	West-Oak		Eastside	Fort Mill
2016-17	JAN	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Battery Creek		Eastside	Rock Hill
2016-17	CHAMP	Cheraw			West-Oak		Eastside	River Bluff

2017-18	NOV	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	West-Oak		Eastside	Fort Dorchester
2017-18	DEC	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	West-Oak		Eastside	Fort Dorchester
2017-18	JAN	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	West-Oak		Eastside	Fort Dorchester
2017-18	CHAMP	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	West-Oak		Eastside	Rock Hill

2018-19	NOV	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	West-Oak		Eastside	Rock Hill
2018-19	DEC	North Central		West-Oak		Eastside	Byrnes		
2018-19	JAN	North Central		West-Oak		Eastside	Byrnes
2018-19	CHAMP	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Indian Land		Eastside	Hillcrest

2019-20	NOV	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Indian Land		Eastside	Hillcrest
2019-20	DEC	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Indian Land		Eastside	Hillcrest
2019-20	JAN	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Indian Land		Eastside	Hillcrest
2019-20	CHAMP	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	Indian Land		Eastside	Hillcrest

2020-21	NOV	Bamberg-Ehrhardt	West-Oak		Eastside	Byrnes
2020-21	JAN	Crescent		Belton-Honea Path	May River	Hillcrest
2020-21	CHAMP	Crescent		Belton-Honea Path	Eastside	Hillcrest

2021-22	NOV	Crescent		Belton-Honea Path	Eastside	Hillcrest
2021-22	DEC	Crescent		Belton-Honea Path	Eastside	Hillcrest
2021-22	JAN							
2021-22	CHAMP							

Here are some interesting observations:

The team that was #1 most times in last 10 years - Eastside with 30 total

The team at #1 for the longest consectiuve stretch in last 10 years - Eastside with 17 Consecutive

Most consecutive Polls with all teams still #1 - 5 times from FEB 2019 to FEB 2020

Only one season went Poll to Poll, beginning to end, with no changes - 2019-2020 season

Which teams only appeared once and it was in January - South Pointe (JAN 2015), Boiling Springs (JAN 2016), May River (JAN 2021)

Which teams only appeared once - and it was in Feburary as Champions - Marion (2016), Cheraw (2017), River Bluff (2017)

How about the coaches that have won State Duals in February over the last 9 years?

Coaches - Team Championships in last 9 years:
8 - Jack Kosmicki
3 - Cain Beard
3 - Greg Brewer
2 - Leon Boulware
2 - Mark Moody
2 - Jake Stewart
2 - Nathan Day
2 - Robby Bell
1 - Anthony Esposito
1 - Austin Powell
1 - Brad Porter
1 - Chad Singleton
1 - Chris Strickland
1 - Derek Strobel
1 - Evan Moxie
1 - Michael Steinbar

We could see a coach join an Exclusive Club this season - winning a State Title at a different school - could that be a factor of motivation in February?

The current list is below - # of different schools, with a coach winning a State Title (team):
3 - B.D. LaPrad - Irmo, Dutch Fork, Fort Dorchester
2 - Jim Barnes - Airport, Rock Hill
2 - Chris Strickland - Crescent, Belton-Honea Path
2 - Chad Singleton - Woodruff, Dorman
2 - Evan Moxie - Lugoff-Elgin, River Bluff

Several coaches with 1 State Title are now at a new school.

What records are being chased by Coach Jack Kosmicki over this season and next? Could this be a driving force for the Eastside wrestlers? The Coaches have four categories in our Recordbooks at SCMAT, and it appears Coach Kosmicki is about to move to the top in all of them soon!

SC Wrestling Records - Coaches: Career Records with 200+ dual wins and 7+ years of SC coaching
676-117-2 - B.D. LaPrad
624-141-2 - Jack Kosmicki

SC Wrestling Records - Coaches: Number of Team State Champions
17 - Jim Barnes
16 - Jack Kosmicki

SC Wrestling Records - Coaches: Number of Individual State Champions
85 - Jim Barnes
81 - Jack Kosmicki

SC Wrestling Records - Coaches: Wins in S.C. State Duals history
Jack Kosmicki - 83
B.D. LaPrad - 54

Also, let's not forget another record in our Recordbook that may be set this season:

SC Wrestling Records - Team: Longest Consecutive State Titles Streak (* - denotes active streak)
6* - Eastside (3A and 4A) - 2016-2021 (Coach Jack Kosmicki)
6 - Eastside (3A) - 2004-2009 (Coach Jack Kosmicki)
5 - Rock Hill (4A) - 1982-1986 (Coach Jim Barnes)

With all of the above data, what does that mean for each classification in SC this season?

5A - 3x defending State Champions, Hillcrest, should repeat again, though they could have some close matches.

4A - 6x defending State Champions, Eastside, should easily repeat again.

3A - Defending State Champions, Belton-Honea Path, will get tested from a strong West-Oak team.

2A-1A - Defending State Champions, Crescent, will get tested from Ninety-Six and maybe Bamberg-Ehrhardt.

In summary, SC wrestling historical rankings do not appear to have any tell-tale trending, like a "Santa Rally". There are no math fomulas to predict all of the February State Champions, based on December and January rankings.

Some coaches prefer for their team to be the underdog and wrestle with a chip on their shoulder.

Other coaches believe their team wrestles like #1, when they are #1.

Teams that win in February tend to either have a solid lineup advantage all season long ... or, a team challenging the #1 team - peaks at the right time, matches up well, avoids key injuries/illness and/or juggles their lineup effectively.

We will find out in February which teams take home trophies!

thanks,

Mark Buford

SCMAT